Estimating Probability
This resource helps students estimate the probability of everyday events by assigning percentages. Students convert these estimates into fractions and decimals, placing each event on a 0–100% probability scale. Includes a table format and an extension activity for deeper learning.
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Learning goals
- We are learning to conduct chance experiments with an increasing number of trials and compare the relative frequency of an outcome.
- We are learning to conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials.
- We are learning to compare frequencies (likely outcomes) across experiments and to unexpected results.
Curriculum alignment
AC9M6P02
9
Conduct repeated chance experiments and run simulations with an increasing number of trials using digital tools; compare observations with expected results and discuss the effect on variation of increasing the number of trials
ACMSP145
8.4
Conduct Probability (Chance) experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies
ACMSP146
8.4
Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequencies
MA3-1WM
old
Describes and represents mathematical situations in a variety of ways using mathematical terminology and some conventions
MA3-2WM
old
Selects and applies appropriate problem- solving strategies, including the use of digital technologies, in undertaking investigations
MA3-3WM
old
Gives a valid reason for supporting one possible solution over another
MA3-19SP
old
Conducts chance experiments and assigns probabilities as values between 0 and 1 to describe their outcomes
MA3-CHAN-01
new
Conducts chance experiments and quantifies the probability
VC2M6P01
2.0
describe probabilities using fractions, decimals and percentages; recognise that probabilities lie on numerical scales of 0–1 or 0%–100%; use estimation to assign probabilities that events occur in a given context, using common fractions, percentages and decimals
VCMSP233 Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies VCMSP234 Compare observed frequencies across experiments with expected frequenciesAustralian Curriculum covers QLD / SA / WA / NT / TAS / ACT.